Abstract Detail

Conservation Biology

Puetz, Eric [1], Latvis, Maribeth [2].

Forecasting change for the Black Hills boreal relic species using Species Distribution Modeling.

As anthropogenic activity fuels climate change, isolated mountain species are increasingly threatened by unpredictable climatic conditions, forcing species polewards and upslope. For isolated mountain species, movement upslope can be considered an “escalator to extinction” if they have no suitable migration corridors. The Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming are highlands that are surrounded by arid prairie, offering an ideal system to study the impacts of climate change on isolated mountain taxa. Here, we focus on understanding current and future distributions of boreal relic plant communities in the Black Hills, which are composed of several species with disjunct distributions. Using georeferenced occurrence data from SEINet and GBIF portals, together with floristic surveys from Black Hills National Forest, we create current and future Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to understand how the ranges of boreal relic species may shift under climate change scenarios. We obtained abiotic climatic layers from WorldClim and developed ensemble SDMs using Maxent, glm, bioclim, etc. Using SDMs to forecast current and future suitable habitat for isolated species will be influential in the development of conservation policy in the Black Hills National Forest. This work also sets the stage for future research that incorporates genetic data to understand genetic variation and patterns of gene flow.

1 - South Dakota State University, Department of Natural Resource Management, McFadden Biostress Laboratory 138, Box 2140B , Brookings, SD, 57007, USA
2 - South Dakota State University, Department Of Natural Resource Management, 1390 College Avenue, Box 2140B, South Dakota State University , Brookings , SD, 57007, United States

Species Distribution Modeling
Disjunct Species
Black Hills
boreal forest
climate change.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Number: CB3001
Abstract ID:685
Candidate for Awards:None

Copyright © 2000-2022, Botanical Society of America. All rights reserved